Friday 27 March 2015

India's string of flowers


India's string of flowers

India obtains two strategically significant toeholds in the Indian Ocean
Sandeep Unnithan  March 27, 2015 | UPDATED 12:10 IST
Among the most significant aspects of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's five-day Indian Ocean tour between March 11 and 14 were MoUs to develop infrastructure on Agalega islands in Mauritius and Assumption Island of Seychelles.
The two island specks, easily missed on a map of the Indian Ocean, are now possibly India's most important strategic footholds in a region through which two-thirds of the world's energy supplies pass.
Both are outer island territories for their sheer distance from the capitals of the archipelago-Agalega is more than 1,000 km north of Mauritius and Assumption island, 600 nautical miles southwest of Seychelles' capital Mahe. India will build airfields and port facilities on both islands. A senior naval official terms the islands as two vital pieces in a jigsaw puzzle of India's reach-out to the countries of the southern Indian Ocean. They add to an Indian listening post on Madagascar, off the coast of Africa, commissioned in 2007 to monitor activities of foreign navies in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Could this then mark the emergence of an Indian 'String of Flowers' to counter China's 'String of Pearls', a US scholar's coinage for a network of ports, infrastructure facilities and basing rights being built by China in countries along the IOR? Naval officials are quick to dismiss the thought of these islands being used as possible Indian bases like say, the strategic US-operated base Diego Garcia, just 600 nautical miles east of Assumption.
"The String of Pearls and the Maritime Silk Road have military connotations whereas India's approach is to enhance the capabilities of the IOR countries so that extra-regional powers are kept out of the region," says a senior naval officer. A case in point, naval officials say, is the menace of Somali piracy spiralling into an international economic problem and drawing in China's navy, chiefly because regional navies lacked the capability to patrol the region.
As part of counter-piracy efforts, India has gifted two patrol vessels to Seychelles-the Tarmugli in 2006 and the Tarasa in 2014. It now hopes to draw Mauritius and Seychelles into a trilateral regional security forum comprising Sri Lanka, India and the Maldives.
Prime Minister Modi announced the handover of a second Dornier maritime patrol aircraft to Seychelles, construction of a radar surveillance station in that country and the delivery of a 1,300-tonne patrol vessel Barracuda built by Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers, Kolkata. Measures the PM said would advance "our shared responsibility to advance maritime security in the region".
The Mauritian and Seychelles armed forces will be the primary users of the facilities India is creating on the islands. Left unsaid is the fact that they will also be used by Indian warships that are routinely deployed to patrol the 1.3-million-square km Exclusive Economic Zone of Seychelles and Indian naval hydrographic survey vessels that visit Mauritius.

The Indian Ocean riposte


The Indian Ocean riposte

The Modi government signals a new push into the Indian Ocean with a diplomatic offensive and naval expansion to counter China's growing presence
Sandeep Unnithan  March 26, 2015 | UPDATED 11:03 IST
 
<a href="http://indiatoday.intoday.in/people/narendra-modi/17737.html">Narendra Modi</a>Narendra Modi in Mahe, SeychelOn February 18, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) formally cleared India's single-largest defence project: a joint Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO)-Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC)-Navy project to build six nuclear-powered attack submarines or SSNs for roughly $12 billion (Rs.74,400 crore). This mammoth 'Make in India' project, nearly the size of the budget allotted this year to the three services to buy hardware ($15 billion), was not an isolated policy decision. Less than a month after he chaired the CCS, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the Indian Ocean littoral countries of Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri Lanka, vital to India's maritime security framework. Here he gifted patrol aircraft, commissioned a warship and secured long-term access to the southern Indian Ocean (see box).
A senior naval official says India's ramped-up Indian Ocean push is a direct response to the expansion in China's naval capabilities including submarine deployments in the Indian Ocean over the past year, and oceanographic surveys meant to legitimise its presence in the region.
India's response is part of a recognition of not just its maritime capabilities, a comprehensive linkage between diplomacy and power projection capability and the fact that China's game plan has huge security implications. "We look at capabilities, not intentions. Intentions can change overnight. If the Chinese have the capability to base their ships in the Indian Ocean Region, it has huge security implications for us," the senior naval officer adds.
THE CHINA GAMBIT
China's increased Indian Ocean presence is part of a $40-billion Maritime Silk Road unveiled by Xi Jingping in 2013. "Shorn of all the commercial hype, the Maritime Silk Road is a proprietary set of Sea Lines of Communication that will accelerate its drive to draw Africa and the Indian Ocean littorals into its resource access network," says Vice Admiral Vijay Shankar, former chief of the Indian Strategic Forces Command. "Intrinsic and yet left unsaid to the establishment of such a proprietary maritime web is the ability to secure and control it. This would place in perspective the modernisation and growth trajectory of China's navy."
Yet, even until 2012, China's entry into the Indian Ocean was confined to anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden.
Beijing remained preoccupied with acquiring dominance in the Yellow Sea, the Taiwan Straits, the East China Sea and the South China Sea around it. A 2012 study, 'Non Alignment 2.0', by a group of scholars including former foreign secretary Shyam Saran, recommended that India use a window of opportunity to build up its naval capabilities in the Indian Ocean.
But China's rapid-fire deployments of three submarines-two SSNs and a conventional submarine-in just a year indicated that this window was rapidly closing. China has a force of more than 60 submarines, including a dozen nuclear-powered platforms. Its sustained Indian Ocean deployments have signalled its ability to undertake long-range missions off India's coast. China's deployments coincided with a critical decline in India's submarine arm-it has 13 conventional diesel-electric submarines, although 24 are required. The navy currently operates a single SSN, the 12,000-tonne Akula-II submarine INS Chakra, on a decade-long lease from Russia since 2012. A project to indigenously assemble six French Scorpene submarines is five years behind schedule. Contracts to build six more conventional Project 75I submarines are yet to be awarded.
Late last year, the NDA government dusted out a 2008 naval proposal for six SSNs, thereby joining a group of Asian nations-Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines-that are rushing to acquire submarines to protect their territorial waters in the face of a rising China.
THE ATTACK SUBMARINE
The Indian Navy's Maritime Capability Perspective Plan unveiled in 2005 envisages a 160-ship navy with 90 capital ships such as frigates and destroyers. Besides seven P17A frigates for $7 billion (Rs.45,000 crore), the government has cleared projects for five fleet support ships, approved a third aircraft carrier and four landing platform dock ships that will project power in the Indian Ocean. Yet, it will be the six SSNs that will form the lynchpin of India's response to the Chinese navy.
The navy envisaged multiple roles for a future nuclear-powered attack submarine fleet: two SSNs each to escort each of the three Carrier Battle Groups, protect the "bastion areas", or bases of the Arihant-class SSBNs, and hunt enemy submarines in the Indian Ocean Region. In the event of a Chinese offensive in the Himalayas, the SSNs will form the backbone of a future Indian riposte. They will run interdiction missions at vital choke points and conduct operations in enemy waters.
All of these tasks are presently carried out by a solitary INS Chakra, which is to be supplemented by a second SSN, possibly the Kashalot to be leased from Russia for $2.7 billion in 2018. "SSN's utility in denial operations, raising the cost of hostile military intervention and shadowing high-value units such as carrier groups and SSBNs, is unparalleled," says Shankar.
The SSN project comes at a time when India's three-decade-old nuclear submarine project is finally coming up to speed. The INS Arihant or the S2, the first of a class of four 6,000-tonne ballistic missile submarines, recently began her sea trials in Visakhapatnam.
The submarine's performance in surface trials has enthused naval officials to plan for its commissioning in December this year. The INS Arihant cost around Rs.6,000 crore to build and can carry either 12 short-range B0-5 missiles or four K4 nucleartipped ballistic missiles with a range of 3,500 km. The DRDO has set up an SSN cell headed by a retired vice admiral in its nuclear submarine building hub, the Ship Building Centre (SBC) in Visakhapatnam. The navy's Delhibased Submarine Design Group is now working to complete a design for these undersea vessels in the next two years. The shipyard to build the vessels is yet to be decided but officials say this programme will run parallel to the seven strategic submarines of the Advanced Technology Vessel Project (ATV).
THE TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGE
At roughly Rs.12,000 crore a unit, one SSN would equal the cost of two 7,500-tonne Project 15A Kolkata-class destroyers. Cost, however, has never been a hurdle. The belief in the need for a nuclear navy has led a series of PMs from Indira Gandhi to Narendra Modi to ensure generous budgetary support.
The ATV programme has spent over Rs.30,000 crore, most of it in secret funds which do not form part of the defence budget. Politicians have occasionally questioned if they were getting value for money. In 2005, then finance minister P. Chidambaram, a member of the apex political committee steering the classified project, wondered why the Arihant, costing over a billion dollars (Rs.6,200 crore), carried only four missiles. The project team doubled the missile load on three subsequent vessels. The only challenges in the project have been technological. The CCS approval marks the start of a new challenge for scientists and nuclear engineers.
Nuclear submarines are powered by compact reactors that produce heat from fission to run a steam turbine. Unlike conventional submarines, a nuclear sub does not have to surface periodically for air to run its diesel engines. Yet, the technical challenge of designing and fitting a compact reactor inside a space the size of a two-storeyed building is insurmountable for all but the P5 countries which build such vessels.
India's ATV project started as a troika of agencies. Steered by the DRDO which also developed the vessel's long-range ballistic missiles, it was staffed by naval project teams that brought in design expertise and BARC that built and developed the reactor. By the late 1990s, it had spent over Rs.2,000 crore on its classified ATV programme without results. The failure to produce a submarine had in 1998 piqued then navy chief Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat to call for a technical audit. Considerable Russian design assistance that followed the May 1998 nuclear tests breathed new life into the project. Even so, it took the Arihant 15 years from the start of construction to begin sea trials. The navy fought a pitched but unsuccessful battle to wrest the project away from DRDO control five years back.
A former DRDO chief is optimistic about the next line of submarines. "We are on schedule with the SSNs and we have the capability to design the submarine and build the reactor," he says.
The six SSNs will be a spin-off from a project that is building four Arihantclass SSBNs or ballistic missile-firing nuclear submarines. The downstream effect of this Make in India project will be tremendous. One private sector official says the $12-billion project will have a force multiplier effect of $40 billion on the Indian economy, generating over a million skilled jobs and sustaining the ecosystem that has grown around the ATV project.
One admiral points out that while the SSN will be Arihant's size, designing and building it will be far more challenging as both platforms have different tasks. An SSBN like the Arihant is a stealth underwater bomber ready to launch nuclear-tipped missiles at an adversary. Its reactor needs to deliver steady speeds as it prowls undetected.
An SSN, on the other hand, is like a fighter jet. It needs a high-performance nuclear reactor which delivers tremendous speed with rapid acceleration and deceleration. It needs a reactor that can perform multiple tasks such as pursuing enemy warships and striking land targets. Opinion seems to be divided regarding the type of reactor that will power the SSN.
BARC wants the Arihant's 83 MW reactor to lead the way. "It's better to build on a proven design. The SSN should have a compact version of the same reactor," says Anil Anand, former head of the BARC reactor design team. A former admiral, also part of the project, differs and calls for a new 190 MW reactor such as the one on the Chakra to be designed.
The new SSN programme, experts say, is an opportunity to learn from past mistakes. Admiral Arun Kumar Singh, former eastern naval commander, calls for stringent supervision to ensure the project stays the course. "The Prime Minister must monitor its progress every year and the defence minister every three months. Otherwise what happens is that the DRDO gives us ambitious projections which it fails to meet," he says. Clearly, old ghosts will continue to haunt the project.
Also Read : India's string of flowers
Follow the writer on Twitter @SandeepUnnithan
To read more, get your copy of India Today here.

Saturday 7 March 2015

Moles of Raisina Hill / cover story


Moles of Raisina Hill

A break-in at the petroleum ministry exposes New Delhi's information bazaar. the new breed of corporate thieves burrow deep into vital ministries to extract information
Sandeep Unnithan , Anshuman Tiwari and Kaushik Deka  February 27, 2015 | UPDATED 13:31 IST
 
Illustration by Saurabh SinghClick here to EnlargeFor a corporate espionage scandal dubbed Filegate, the story began, appropriately, with a break-in. On the night of February 18, Delhi Police arrested three government contract staff-ers for illegally entering the offices of the petroleum ministry in Shastri Bhawan. Nine 'secret' documents of the ministry were recovered from them. They included monthly reports, correspondence and input material for the national gas grid to be proposed in the Union Budget. The employees led police down a veritable rabbit hole of incriminating documents from the coal and power ministries. The 2010 leak of the Niira Radia tapes exposed corporate India's dependence on lob-byists to influence government policy. Five years later, Filegate has blown the lid off an elaborate information bazaar in the Capital.
Police say companies profited from the stolen information. They have so far arrested two energy consultants- Santanu Saikia and Prayas Jain-and five senior energy firm executives- Rishi Anand of ADAG Reliance, Subhash Chandra of Jubilant Energy, Vinay Kumar of Essar, Shailesh Saxena of RIL and K.K. Naik of Cairns.

Energy consultant Santanu Saikia ahead of a court appearance in DelhiClick here to EnlargeTHE PAPER CHASE 

That the Filegate probe was monitored by National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and the Intelligence Bureau (IB) indi-cates the dismay in the top echelons of government over the leakage of information. The arrests, which came after two months of surveillance by the IB, was the government's prover-bial shot across the bows of Corporate India. The ripples are being felt in Mumbai where India Inc anxiously watches the investigations. "That it is a message for the corporate sector is not in question. It is also a message for the bureaucracy," says political ana-lyst Santosh Desai.
Few items as nondescript as an antiquated blue-brown cardboard file bound in string evoke as much awe in Lutyens' Delhi. This is because the sheafs of light green noting sheets with handwritten notes on the margins con-tinue to be harbingers of government policy. In the information bazaar, the government file is the new currency, sometimes sold to multiple bidders.
A refinery throughput report or a technical note on spectrum pricing or even routine inter-departmental communications may not excite hard-boiled researchers. But for companies intent on decoding the drift of government policy, these documents are paydirt. Government files and reports are valuable road maps to navigate the treacherous minefield of an opaque policy environment.
Fuelling the anxiety of businessmen is the obsessive secrecy that surrounds government decision-mak-ing and the inaccessibility of bureaucrats. "Letters are never replied to, our requests for appointments are never heeded to by bureaucrats," says a Delhi-based industrialist.
Click here to EnlargeThe flip side of this secrecy is a cul-ture of lax security where senior offi-cials freely use private email accounts and vital files are manually carried around by the lowest paid employees in the department-on an average each file passes through a dozen hands each day as it travels between offices for approvals. Over the past decade how-ever, leaks have ceased to make news in Delhi. Thousands of classified docu-ments, including top-secret military procurement plans, correspondence and secret cabinet briefing notes from the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) (see box), have sprung out of virtually all the sensitive offices on Raisina Hill.
Even so, the petroleum ministry break-in was audacious in its brazen-ness. Government employees forged vehicle passes and made duplicate keys to access petroleum ministry offices. They even disabled CCTV cameras, which were installed there last year after the ministry asked the Intelligence Bureau to find out how CPI leader Gurudas Dasgupta was able to access information in real time.
This break-in coincides with a ris-ing trend of industrial espionage. A 2012 Assocham survey on corporate espionage interviewed around 1,500 CEOs and EDs. About 900 said they indulged in corporate espionage and bugged offices of their rivals by plant-ing moles in rival firms. Many of them planted people in minor jobs such as receptionists and peons.
Lawyer and anti-corruption activ-ist Prashant Bhushan says the petro-leum ministry break-in confirms the whiff of corporate espionage hinted at in the Radia tapes. "A well-organised machinery was at work within the ministry," Bhushan says.
Greasing the wheels of this machin-ery are corporate budgets for 'liaison units' that could be several crores of rupees depending on the group's size. Nearly 50 per cent of its expenses are dubbed miscellaneous expenses generally used as 'facilitation fees'. The transformation of this cottage industry into an organised sector mir-rors corporate India's rising fortunes.
The owner of a Delhi-based Rs.300 crore infrastructure firm pegs his cost of 'acquiring new business' at 2 per cent or nearly Rs.6 crore. The money is spent on entertaining officials and for information.
The new information warriors are an army of 'corporate communication officers' appointed by all business houses to keep abreast of government. They have fancy designations, starting salaries of over Rs.1 lakh a month and are often complemented by pri-vate consultants, many of whom are retired government servants in touch with their former associates in the administration.
The KRA for the job is access to politicians, bureaucrats who matter in vital ministries relating to petroleum, coal and telecommunications where government policy can directly impact a firm's bottom lines. A senior execu-tive of a US-based MNC complains about the unfair competitive advan-tage Indian companies have because they employ such liaison officers. "We can only rely on our brand name and the sheer weight of investments we can bring in," he says.
The information is used by planners to update their business decisions and pre-empt government policy moves. Access to a regular information flow helps them follow up proposals specifically related to individual corporate houses, or matters related to competition. In the defence ministry for instance, information can translate into a massive competitive advantage. Leaked documents such as the Long Term Perspective Plans help arms manufacturers know of requirements of the armed forces well in advance. Arms dealers and lobbyists then use this information to influence the specifications of equipment even as they are being finalised within various service headquarters. This ensures a narrow playing field when tenders are finalised. Information is valued according to its office of origin. A report-a euphemism for multiple sheets of paper that could be budget inputs or ministerial discussions-can fetch upwards of Rs.50,000. A paper from the PMO can fetch up to Rs.5 lakh.
The policymaking process is tracked as it begins at the level of section officer of a department and goes up to the cabinet for approval. One frequent Raisina Hill corporate visitor grades information into liquid, semi-solid and solid, with solid commanding a premium. "Liquid signals policy intent, solid means policy action."
Photocopying files is passe. Smartphones now come loaded with apps such as Scanbot that enable quality scans of documents. They are uploaded on cloud servers hosted out of the country. There's no paper trail. "Files with signatures and notings command a premium because plain documents are suspected to be forgeries," says a revenue officer. The desperation of business houses has also resulted in the emergence of a parallel army of consultants. These consultants create networks which include junior employees in ministries.
Click here to EnlargePolice say the network of junior government employees in the petroleum ministry-Asharam Singh, a peon, and two former multi-tasking staff at Shastri Bhawan, Lalta Prasad and Rakesh Kumar-vacuumed information and fed them to energy consultants Santanu Saikia and Prayas Jain. The duo sold it to companies.
Saikia's family claims that he has been framed because one of his energy websites published a story on an alleged fraud committed by one petroleum firm. "He exposed a scam and the government went after him," Saikia's relative says.
A senior official for one of the business houses named by the police in the petroleum ministry break-in, denies they buy information. "Big corporate houses don't need to hire intermediaries. They can get information with two phone calls. And documents are regularly leaked by disgruntled bureaucrats," says the official.
Liberalisation unleashed the power of the Indian private sector but also made the government the custodian of state secrets. Before telecom liberalisation, the Wireless Planning & Coordination Wing was so nondescript that it did not even find place in Sanchar Bhawan. The telecom revolution has made this office, located in Dak Bhavan, most sought-after because it holds India's spectrum blueprint, the lifeblood of the telecom sector.
"Since liberalisation, certain business groups enjoyed an edge over rivals because of access to politicians and bureaucrats and monopolised sectors such as hydrocarbons, aviation and telecom. The recent incident has exposed this nexus," says Rajya Sabha member and founder of Jupiter Capital, Rajeev Chandrasekhar.
The importance of low-grade employees could be gleaned from the fact that Subhash Chandra, the arrested corporate executive, worked as a typist with the under secretary's PA in the Petroleum ministry until 2011. He then joined Jubilant Energy, one of the firms that police say had received stolen documents, as a senior executive.
The fiercely competitive business has just not forced companies to create new jobs such as 'file chasers' but also pushed them to resort to sponsoring questions in Parliament, or even influence governments directly-as in the 2013 scandal where US retailer Walmart allegedly spent $25 million in lobbying fees to lobby the Indian government to ease restrictions on foreign direct investment in the retail industry.
Following this the company launched an internal probe and delayed its India operations.
Information gleaned from govern-ment documents helps companies lobby with government.
Policy analyst and PR firm Perfect Relations founder Dilip Cherian draws the line between professional lobbying and "nefarious activities going on in the name of lobbying". "Our job is to form opinion on the merit of a policy and it's done only after a policy is announced or a debate is going on over a policy. The scam in the petro-leum ministry is nothing but theft of documents. It's a kind of insider trading and no professional lobbyist indulges in such practices," he says.
However, lobbying doesn't nec-essarily happen by Cherian's rule-book. Corporate lobbyist Deepak Talwar, who was named in one CBI preliminary inquiry registered in the Radia tapes case, is said to have visited the official residence of the then CBI chief Ranjit Sinha at least 63 times in 15 months between May 2013 and August 2014. According to probe agencies, Talwar obtained clearanc-es for a telecom company, Telcordia, from various agencies despite security objections raised by the home ministry. MNP Interconnection Tele-com Solutions India Pvt Ltd-a joint venture between Telcordia and Deepak Talwar Consultants Pvt Ltd- is one of only two companies that had been licensed to implement mobile number portability. Talwar refused to comment when reached by INDIA TODAY.

TRANSPARENT GOVERNMENT 

Former CBI director R.K. Raghavan outlines a score of short-term measures to improve physical security in chaotic government offices. These include appointing full-time directors accountable for security in sensitive ministries, controlling access to copying machines and sequester-ing sensitive areas in each building where confidential information is handled. Some of these measures are already being implemented by the government in the wake of Filegate. The long-term issue of progressive-ly eliminating paper files needs to be undertaken.
Former home secretary G.K. Pillai is for the government to make infor-mation easily accessible. "As far as possible, the government should upload all information on the internet to prevent such break-ins," he says.
The answer, as former Information Commissioner Shailesh Gandhi says, is for the government to implement its vision for Digital India in its own offices. "Government offices are awash in paper files. There is no space to store them or retrieve them. The system clings to paper files because of inertia and a vested interest that cor-ruption will be eliminated if they dis-appear," he says.
The government's paperless office drive has been a nonstarter. In 2011, the PMO began using an e-office soft-ware to create a paperless office. The software, developed by the National Informatics Centre, has files that trav-el within a secure intranet. Four years later, the PMO is the only government department to use e-files.
Securing files is only one part of the solution. A key reason for the cor-porate obsession for information lies in the opacity of government.
Industry bodies say the only way to end corporate snooping is to introduce complete transparency and demolish the walls of secrecy around the process of decision-making. "What we need is strong regulators, open decision making," says Assocham Secretary General D.S. Rawat. "Even Budget making should be done in a transparent manner and this prac-tice of changing and altering tax slabs and rates every year should be stopped. There should be long-term policies with clear vision and fair, transparent rules of the game".
The benefits of e-Governance are clearly visible. One business-man explains he bagged a Rs.1,500-crore Engineering Procurement and Construction contract for installing transformers through online bids. The bid was processed in just 45 days as opposed to a year. It cut out an army of middlemen he would have other-wise employed in the process.
Last year, the Directorate General of Acquisition, a sensitive Ministry of Defence department that procures arms, began a system of month-ly informal meetings with industry representatives.
The solution could lie in a relook at the entire architecture of confi-dentiality in government and the indiscriminate classification of even routine government documents as secret. "Archaic laws such as the Official Secrets Act must be repealed. Lobbying must be legalised and reg-ulated through a statutory enactment," says Congress spokesperson Manish Tewari.
Removing the premium on infor-mation could create a level playing field. When the buying stops, the break-ins for information can too.

Follow the writers on Twitter @SandeepUnnithan, @anshuman1tiwari and @KDscribe

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