Friday, 8 January 2016

The blunders of Pathankot

The blunders of Pathankot

Despite the availability of intelligence about an imminent attack, Indian security forces only partly succeeded in foiling the intention of terrorists.

January 6, 2016 | UPDATED 16:51 IST 
Soldiers carry the mortal remains of Garud Commando CPL Gursewak Singh who was killed in the Pathankot attack.
The six fidayeen terrorists who struck at the airbase in Pathankot on January 2 had two specific objectives-to kill military personnel and destroy fighter aircraft and helicopter gunships. The attackers failed in their primary task of destroying aircraft parked in the frontline air force base because they were prevented from reaching the technical area. But a series of lapses by India's security establishment allowed the terrorists to succeed in at least the objective of killing security personnel and prolonging their siege of the airbase. The attack was no bolt from the blue-the security establishment knew about it over a day in advance thanks to the alarm raised by a police officer who had been kidnapped by the terrorists and the monitoring of cellphones stolen from the police officer and his associates. Intercepts of the terrorists' conversations with their Pakistan-based handlers hinted at Pathankot being the target. These leads gave the government adequate time to pre-position forces in the base to anticipate their arrival. The tardy response turned what could have been a spectacular textbook success in the fight against terrorism emanating from Pakistan, into a long-drawn pyrrhic victory evocative of earlier operations.
No lessons learnt
Both fidayeen groups that struck the Indian Air Force base at Pathankot early on January 2 morning crossed into India near Bamiyal, a small Punjab township, which is a well known infiltration point used by drug smugglers and terrorists alike. Waypoints recorded on GPS devices recovered from the three-man suicide squad that attacked a police station in Dinanagar, Gurdaspur district, less than six months ago, on July 27, 2015, have shown that they used the same route to gain entry to India. Clearly, neither the Border Security Force (BSF) nor the Punjab Police chose to imbibe any lasting lessons from Dinanagar. Although in the immediate aftermath of the attack on the police station, Punjab's Police establishment had moved quickly to beef up security: handpicked officers were moved to remote border locations such as Narot Jaimal Singh, and mobile units including CPMF (Central Paramilitary Force) and state police personnel increased night patrols along rural roads as well as the national highway. All that, however, lasted barely three months. Inexplicably, post-October the patrols were scaled down and many of the officers succeeded in having themselves moved out from what they saw as "punishment postings". Senior police officers, now faced with the frightening prospect of another terror strike, are pointing fingers at the "imposing narcotics nexus-local politicians and smugglers" who want to keep easy points of ingress like Bamiyal open.
Delayed response
Early morning on January 1, Salwinder Singh, the superintendent police (headquarters) at Gurdaspur, made frantic calls to the police control room in Pathankot as well as several of his superiors to report that four Pakistani terrorists wearing military fatigues had abducted him. At the time Singh, known to be a highly pampered officer who rarely ever moved without a large security contingent, was inexplicably only accompanied by his cook Madan Gopal and Rajesh Kumar, a jeweler from Pathankot. The officer claimed the terrorists waylaid his private SUV close to midnight outside Koliyan village when they were returning from a local shrine. Singh said the abductors, who took the jeweler along to drive the car, let off the cook and him. Notably, Singh's warning about the presence of fidayeen in the area came in the wake of an earlier December 30 intelligence advisory that was communicated to all Punjab districts. Based on an Intelligence Bureau report, it warned about the possible infiltration bid in the Bamiyal area. Incredibly, despite these obvious pointers, top Punjab Police brass reportedly refused to buy Singh's story. Their scepticism, a senior police officer said, came from Singh's 'reputation'-Singh denies this vehemently. They believed him only after the recovery of the officer's SUV outside Tajpur village (barely 500 metres from the western wall of the IAF station) and a subsequent call from Kumar, who had managed to reach a private hospital despite being stabbed in the neck and left as 'dead' by the terrorists. By then crucial hours had been lost.
Failure to secure the Air Base
Sometime before sunrise on January 1 and around 3:00 am the next morning, when they first engaged the DSC (Defence Security Corps) guards inside, the four fidayeen, possibly by then joined by a second group of two, managed to gain easy entry into the Indian Air Force base in Pathankot. This despite the fact there was more than a fair warning of their imminent arrival and deadly intent. Despite its initial lethargy, by mid-morning on January 1, Punjab Police men fanned out to comb civilian areas including several villages fringing the 2,000 acre airbase. However, the extensive operation that included SWAT (special weapons and tactics) teams failed to track down the Pakistanis. Even more shocking was the fact that even local army units that were in position to protect the airbase failed to accomplish a relatively simple task of securing the perimeter. Much of the job seems to have been left to the DSC guards-re-employed, usually middle-aged former soldiers posted as sentries at airbases and other military installations.
This is clearly indicated by the fact that they were the first to engage the fidayeen, whose presence, senior IAF officers say, had already been detected via helicopter-borne thermal imaging. "We were very short on manpower," one of the IAF's Garud commandos who was sent in to take on the terrorists after three DSC men were killed on Day One of the four-day standoff, told india today on January 4.
Deployment of the NSG
Days before the Pathankot strike, the National Security Guard (NSG) had been put on high alert. The NSG's 51 Special Action Group (SAG) that comprised entirely of army personnel had moved out of its base in Manesar, Haryana, into the Sudarshan complex, a facility constructed after the 26/11 attacks on the outskirts of the Indira Gandhi International airport. Intelligence inputs had warned of possible terror strikes on New Year's eve on installations in and around Delhi. Commandos in plainclothes milled around a row of malls in south Delhi studying their interiors and exits. On January 1, two NSG units-the 51 SAG and the 11 Special Rangers Group comprising over 200 commandos-were airlifted to the Pathankot airbase when the infiltration by the terrorists and their motive to strike at the airbase became known. Government officials defend the choice of deploying the NSG. They feared a hostage situation. The army was in the loop on the operation and sent a brigade in to secure the perimeter of the airbase.
When the attack began on January 2, it became evident that the NSG, a specialist hostage rescue and intervention force, might not have been the best choice for the operation. Experts say the NSG is an intervention force trained and tasked to handle a crisis, not to protect an airbase or ambush terrorists before they arrived. The task of neutralising the terrorists over such a large area required large numbers of soldiers and would have been done far more efficiently by the army infantry units familiar with the terrain. Besides two infantry division in Pathankot with over 15,000 soldiers each, there were two other divisions, in Jammu and Amritsar which could have been brought in for the manpower-intensive clearing operations. Three battle-hardened special forces units of the Indian Army's parachute regiment-4 and 9 Para-SF units in Udhampur just over 100 km away and the 1 Para-SF in Nahan, 300 kilometres away. All these units have been deployed for over a decade to fight J&K militants. Only 1 Para, however, was called in to support the NSG.
Lack of coordination
Joint operations are anathema to the Indian security agencies that are comfortable operating in their own silos. This painful lesson was learned during the 26/11 terror attack in Mumbai when multiple forces-the Mumbai Police, CRPF, Marine Commandos, the Indian Army and the NSG failed to combine forces to tackle terrorists at multiple locations, especially in the initial hours of the attack. This problem could have been surmounted by putting a single officer in charge of all the forces and by issuing him clear directives.
Army mine-protected vehicles after the operation at the Pathankot airbase.

Army mine-protected vehicles after the operation at the Pathankot airbase. Photo: Prabhjot Gill

Neither of this seems to have been done at Pathankot where multiple agencies-the IAF, the Punjab Police, the army and the NSG were at work, each answering to their own superiors. At a January 5 press conference in Pathankot, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar brushed aside criticism over the deployment of the NSG as the lead force by arguing that over 50 per cent of the force (the SAG) comprised of army personnel. He did not, however, mention that the NSG is a Central Armed Paramilitary Force under the home ministry with a separate chain of command under an IPS officer. Parrikar also mentioned the army, air force and NSG needed to undertake 'joint training' hinting at the lacunae in coordination.
'Mission accomplished' too soon
National Security Adviser Ajit Doval who chaired the vital January 1 meeting which resulted in the NSG and army deployments, termed the operation a success. "As a counter-terrorism response, it is a highly successful operation for which our Army, Air Force, NSG and police, which played a vital role need to be complimented," he told the media in Delhi. Yet by the evening of January 2, security forces had already concluded operations were over when the fourth terrorist was killed. Home Minister Rajnath Singh congratulated security forces for killing 'five militants' that evening but deleted his tweet soon after. This may have lulled security forces into a false sense of complacency that continued at least until the following morning when gunfire by the two terrorists signaled a resumption of the siege. Security forces now believe two teams of terrorists reached the airbase using different routes. While one team engaged the security forces, the other one rested, opening fire on the forces the following day. It took over a day to neutralise them. This modus operandi, the first in recent years, revived memories of a grievous security lapse in 2003, when senior army officers visited the site of a suicide attack by fidayeen militants in Jammu. They had assumed that the operation was over but had not accounted for a hidden fidayeen militant who opened fire, killing a brigadier and wounding the Northern Army commander Lt General Hari Prasad.
Death of the NSG officer
A tragic turning point in the Pathankot operation came on the afternoon of January 3, when a grenade blast killed Lt Colonel Niranjan Kumar, the Commanding Officer of the NSG's Bomb Disposal Company (BDC). Three other personnel of his unit were injured in the blast. The officer was believed to have been disposing explosives carried by the terrorists when the grenade went off. The most senior NSG officer to die in an operation, Lt Colonel Kumar's death raises questions about whether the force was adequately equipped to carry out the task. This particularly as all security forces, the NSG and army included, have a 'Render Safe Procedure' to deal with corpses-to assume they are always booby trapped with explosives. Among the simplest and deadliest ambushes is to pull the pin out of a grenade and keep it under a corpse. The weight of the body depresses the grenade's safety lever. Moving the body triggers the grenade. This is why security personnel are instructed to move bodies from a safe distance using hooked sticks and ropes or wearing a full bomb suit while doing so. Larger explosives are usually handled by a Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV), a tracked robot with a manoeuverable claw that can be controlled from half-a-kilometre away. It is not clear whether the NSG's bomb disposal unit, which travelled to Pathankot from Delhi, took all its equipment along. One of several unanswered questions about the operation.
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Tuesday, 5 January 2016

Media blackout of Pathankot a lesson learned from 26/11

Media blackout of Pathankot attack a lesson learned from 26/11

By not providing timely updates of the attack, the government did not fill the information gap.

 |  3-minute read |   05-01-2016
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Late into the night of November 26, 2008 when ten terrorists were well into their slaughter of Mumbai’s hapless civilians, one of their handlers remotely steering the massacre from a control room in Karachi had an epiphany. The handler learned of several potential high-profile hostages. “There are three ministers and secretary of the cabinet in your hotel,” he told terrorists rampaging through the Taj Mahal hotel. “We don’t know in which room…find those persons and you will get anything you want from India…”
And just how did this handler sitting nearly a thousand kilometres away, know this? Just hours before, several Indian TV channels broadcast phone-ins with MPs trapped in the Taj. Speaking with victims trapped in a terrorist-infested hotel might have sounded like journalistic due diligence in the din of explosions and gunfire. Broadcasting the conversation live, however, amounted to culpable homicide.
As the first group of hotel guests tip-toed out of their sanctuary at the Chambers in the early hours of November 27, they were set upon by the four terrorists. Fifteen guests and hotel staff were gunned down. The slaughter stopped only when Indian Navy’s Marine Commandos arrived and engaged terrorists in a firefight. The bloody link between the telecast and the civilian deaths was deduced only after intercepts of the conversation were publicised by the Mumbai police weeks after the attacks. Which possibly explained the egregious lapse on November 28-- TV cameras broadcast live footage of an IAF helicopter air dropping commandos on to Nariman House.
The experienced terrorist handlers in Karachi were possibly delighted at this windfall. Their control room echoing with the breathless coverage from Indian TV stations, they precisely instructed how the terrorists were to face the NSG commandos rapelling from the helicopters. One commando, Havaldar Gajender Singh, was killed as he entered a room fortified by the terrorists. TV channels had, once again, unwittingly turned into CCTV cameras for terrorists.
That terrorists use the media to achieve their primary objective of waging psychological warfare is a truism and researchers have weighed in on how live coverage has impacted on their actions.
Jerrold Post, author of The Mind of a Terrorist, calls terrorism “a kind of psychological warfare waged through the media.” Which means that while we know terrorists influence the media, media coverage also influences terrorists. In a 2013 interview to buzzfeed.com, Post cites an early instance of this: the 1977 takeover of the B’nai B’rith International headquarters in Washington, DC — when media outlets began reporting that some hostages had escaped and were sending food and water to the other hostages. The terrorists, Post says, saw the reports and recaptured the hostages.
In the fast-moving 24x7 news environment of the 21st century when easily available tools like satellite phones allow masterminds to remotely control strikes and assess the impact of their actions, restrained coverage of ongoing operations are critical. Mumbai 26/11 was an example of unrestrained coverage actually worsening a crisis and reason why the set of self-regulation guidelines released by India’s News Broadcasters Association on December 18, 2008, completely banned live TV coverage of terrorist attacks.
News channels could not reveal the number of hostages or their identity during an ongoing terrorist attack nor show the victims. The import of these guidelines, largely followed by the media since 26/11 have made timely briefings by government spokespersons that much more important. This has not happened so far. The initial hours of the Pathankot terror attack were followed by deafening silence from the defence ministry, later, a premature ‘mission accomplished’ announcement from Home Minister Rajnath Singh, followed by a revolving door of spokespersons from the home ministry and the IAF.
This was an eerie repeat of the three-day long 26/11 attacks in Mumbai where multiple officials produced an echo chamber of facts and narratives. When defence minister Manohar Parrikar finally briefed the media at the Pathankot air force station on January 5, it was over three days after the attack had started.

Monday, 28 December 2015

Netaji's revenge


The dominant narrative of India’s freedom struggle has been that it was achieved through non-violence. This account has remained unquestioned despite a hellish follow-through of Partition, which led to the largest mass migration in human history and the deaths of between 200,000 and 500,000 persons.
Was this pacifist narrative also why historians consigned Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose’s legacy to calendar art? The figure in military fatigues, breeches and Gandhi glasses but not the architect of Free India’s first army, the Azad Hind Fauj drafted from British Indian army soldiers captured by the Japanese. Indian historians parroted the line of how Bose was a ‘misguided patriot’ partly because he allied with the Axis powers—Germany’s Adolf Hitler and Japan’s Hideki Tojo. Historians however, underestimated the critical role Bose had played in shaking the unwavering faith of the British in their most powerful instrument of control over the sub-continent—the Indian army.
This forgotten freedom fighter returned this year but not how his admirers, sceptical of his demise, would have wanted him to.
INDIA TODAY took a close look at recently declassified files from the West Bengal state archives and discovered a shocking political secret. The Bose family had been under intensive surveillance by the Intelligence Bureau for over two decades. What made this snooping even more egregious was that the surveillance was authorized by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, Netaji’s colleague in the freedom  movement. The revelations led to renewed interest in the legacy of a forgotten freedom fighter, not the least of which are tour companies in Kolkata offering a Netaji tour circuit. More tangibly, the issue has lent fresh urgency to the issue of declassifying thousands of classified ‘Netaji Files’ still with the central government and the West Bengal government. Most of these files contain material thrown up by inquiries into his mysterious disappearance in August 1945. Two of the three probes ordered by the government believe he died in an air crash in Taiwan. A third, in 2006, refused to believe the air crash theory. But as we now know, the files also contained the politically  embarrassing secrets of a rigorous surveillance by the Indian secret services, that is now out for historians to study. What other secrets the files hold will be known only next year. Prime Minister Narendra Modi met and assured Bose family members and assured them that the files would be declassified— beginning with the freedom fighter’s birth anniversary, January 23 ,2016. But it was West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee who acted first. In September, Banerjee declassified all the files and transferred them to the police museum. The assembly elections in West Bengal, just months away, were doubtless, a powerful incentive for her to reclaim the icon.


--Sandeep Unnithan.

Friday, 25 December 2015

Anti-terror grid in deep freeze

Anti-terror grid in deep freeze

Seven years after 26/11, a series of intelligence-sharing databases that could prevent another terror strike are yet to get off the ground-an ominous reality given the recent Paris attack.

November 25, 2015 | UPDATED 15:07 IST 
CCTNS envisages computerising nearly 15,000 police stations nationwide. Photo: Vikram Sharma
In the weeks after the November 26, 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai, India's stunned secu-rity establishment went into a huddle. No accountability was fixed for some particularly egregious intelligence lapses, such as the Indian Navy disregarding an Intelligence Bureau (IB) alert about a Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) vessel. An LeT mole, David Coleman Headley, breezed in and out of the country at will, without ever being questioned. Even as the government rapidly expanded its counter-terrorism response unit, the National Security Guard, into four metro hubs, it looked for a raft of new measures among which were those to swiftly disseminate intelligence across agencies to warn of another terrorist attack.
The acronyms and capabilities of this three-stage transition to a smart counter-terror network were formidable - the Crime and Criminal Tracking Network & Systems (CCTNS) would seamlessly connect all of India's over 14,000 police stations; the National Intelligence Grid or NATGRID would link up civilian databases to give security organisations a 360° profile of suspects; and finally, the National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC), a self-contained terrorism fighting machine.
Nearly seven years later, not one of these intelligence-sharing databases are a reality despite a budget of thousands of crores of rupees and a Rs 800 crore spend on the CCTNS. All the government has to show for itself are a mess of reports, proposals, committees, red tape, turf battles, and the mirage of a robust security architecture.
G.K. Pillai who steered all three projects as home secretary in 2009-2011 says the projects were on steam during then home minister P. Chidambaram's tenure but suffered from 'ownership issues' after he quit in 2012. Officials say that there is a silent battle on in government to restore this architecture, but take it away from the home ministry and place it under the intelligence agencies.
On November 18, just five days after Islamic State (IS) terrorists killed 130 people in Paris, the government proved the truism that all reform in India is crisis-driven. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs, headed by Prime Minister Modi, fast-tracked a Rs 2,000-crore CCTNS proposal. The network will now be completed by March 2017, government officials promised.
SLOW-TRACK CCTNS
The CCTNS had its origins in a PolNet system conceived in the late 1990s to link police stations. PolNet never took off. Neither, for that matter, has its successor, the CCTNS, announced after the 26/11 attack. "It is preposterous that 18 years later we don't have the simple network for police stations to share information," says Ajai Sahni, executive director of the Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management. "The government is still quarrelling over the architecture of the system with the private vendor that is developing it."
The CCTNS envisages fully computerising about 14,324 police stations and about 5,000 offices of supervisory police officers across the country. The project's initial completion date was to be March 2012 but implementation related issues pushed the deadline to 2015. Last year, the CCTNS was merged with an umbrella scheme for modernisation of the police and other forces. Subsequently, the umbrella scheme itself was dropped and this year, no funds were allocated for the scheme.
Meanwhile, the home ministry is coordinating CCTNS with the states to discuss linking up their databases even as various problems have cropped up, say officials who attended these meetings. Project implementation is at an advanced stage in all states except Bihar and Rajasthan. Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana and Tamil Nadu use their own software which is funded by the CCTNS project. This commonality of software has caused problems for integration of databases, say government officials, because the databases are not compatible with each other.
States such as Odisha complained that First Information Reports (FIRs) were being registered online only in 300 of their 561 police stations because of uncertain power supply and hardware repair issues. Several states such as Jharkhand complained of slow internet speeds. The states wanted the broadband speeds to be raised from 512 kbps to 2 mbps, which now means fresh contracts need to be drawn up between Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited and the state governments.
"We should have followed a top-down approach, rolling out various phases of the project, but we have instead gone for a bottom-up approach," says a government official privy to the discussions.
State governments want a five-year funding support from the Centre to continue the programme. Only six states have so far implemented the CCTNS network in all police stations.
This is just the modest first stage of getting all police stations to file FIRs online. After this begins the challenge of integrating state databases with central servers and then the second phase with new features such as mobile applications, fingerprint identification systems and an integration with the Integrated Criminal Justice System, a comprehensive database of courts, prisons and forensic evidence.
At an October 16 meeting of secretaries of various agencies connected with the project departments, the finance and the home ministries debated on the fine print-over whether CCTNS was a centrally sponsored scheme or a centrally funded scheme, a reflection of the bureaucratisation of the security architecture.
GRIDLOCKED NATGRID
The NATGRID project had made little progress in the six years since it had been announced in 2009 and a high-profile CEO had been recruited from the private sector. In May last year, the government decided not to extend the contract of its CEO Raghu Raman. However, in May this year, it decided to breathe life into the catatonic project, appointing Ashok Prasad, special secretary (internal security) in the home ministry, to head it. In October, the government put the National Informatics Centre in charge of executing the project and appointed four sub-committees to head different aspects.

Illustration by Saurabh Singh

 
It was a curious turn of fortune for a UPA-era scheme, the brainchild of then home minister P. Chidambaram. NATGRID synergised private sector strengths to do for counter-terrorism what Nandan Nilekani's Unique Identification Authority had done for the direct benefits scheme. The organisation submitted a 672-page detailed project report to the home ministry in November 2010, but this could not make much headway. The intelligence agencies, particularly the IB, saw NATGRID as an interloper and refused to back it. When Chidambaram demitted the home ministry for the finance ministry, the project lost an important votary. It went on the back burner.
The turf battles with other intelligence agencies continue who are loath to sharing information despite NATGRID officials' assurances that they were like "couriers who merely carried parcels from the sender to the recipient". "The agencies fear that NATGRID might become too powerful, that its users will have too much access to information and might even misuse it," says a senior government official.
Prasad revived the Multi-Agency Centre (MAC) that operates under the IB in North Block. He is now being seen as a contender for the post of the NATGRID CEO after he retires on January 31 next year.
THE NCTC DILEMMA
It is with the NCTC that the NDA government is truly confronted with a dilemma. The government has the blueprint of an organisation it drew up in its first spell in power over a decade ago, but vociferously opposed while in the Opposition. In 2000, the Kargil Review Committee proposed a comprehensive overhaul of India's internal and external security. Significant recommendations of the Group of Ministers that examined the report in 2001 included the creation of the NCTC and the MAC. The MAC was to be the first step for intelligence agencies to share information; it would then be subsumed into the NCTC. The concept note for both was prepared by Ajit Doval, then additional director in the IB. The MAC was notified in December 2001 and Doval chaired the first meeting in February 2002.
The NCTC was envisaged as a comprehensive terror-fighting agency with separate arms for gathering, processing, analysing intelligence, and then acting on it. It was modelled on the National Counter terrorism Center of the United States. The MAC would form the nucleus of this new entity. But the near-defunct MAC stirred to life only six years later, after the 26/11 attack.
The agency was re-notified on December 31, 2008 and the first meeting chaired by newly appointed Home Minister P. Chidambaram on January 1, 2009. The MAC grew from a coordination centre where representatives of 25 Indian intelligence agencies shared information. The first meeting saw around a dozen pieces of information being shared. (This year, MAC meetings shared, on average, close to 200 pieces of intelligence.) Yet, there was no sign of the gigantic NCTC.
On February 3, 2012 the UPA government issued an executive order, a central counter-terrorism hub located within the IB. There was an immediate blowback from the states, particularly Opposition-ruled states such as Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal-which saw the NCTC's provisions to carry out operations across India as an attack on federalism and interference in law and order, a state subject.
The states did not look closely at the provisions of the notification which said that the Centre would act "with the assistance of the state police". The government went on the back foot but did not cancel the executive order, only holding it "in abeyance". So the NCTC is alive, if only on paper.
"The government faces a catch-22," says a senior intelligence official. "It cannot be seen as pushing for an agency it opposed while in the Opposition." Other informed sources say that the government plans to create a vast technical intelligence agency like the US National Security Agency. Agencies such as the NATGRID and Aviation Research Centre will be integrated into the National Technical Research Organisation.
"The requirements of a centralised platform to evolve better intelligence coordination and dissemination is indisputable whether it is embedded in the existing agencies such as the IB and Research & Analysis Wing or NATGRID. That is for the government to decide," says Rajeev Chandrasekhar, Rajya Sabha MP and member of the parliamentary standing committee on defence. The trouble is, that could take years to be realised.
Follow the writer on Twitter @SandeepUnnithan

Saturday, 21 November 2015

From Arab Spring to Islamist Winter

From Arab Spring to Islamist Winter

Al Qaeda, that led the Mali hotel siege, was strengthened by the collapse of Muammar Gadaffi’s Libya in 2011.

 |  4-minute read |   21-11-2015
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The attacks by an al Qaeda affiliate at the Radisson Blu luxury hotel in Africa exactly a week after the Paris terror attack could signal a curious rivalry between jihadist groups opposed to the West. Al Qaeda, the original fount of global jihad, signalling the upstart Islamic State which carried out the lethal Paris strikes, that it was still relevant.
Al Qaeda in West Africa, also known as al Mourabitoun is believed to be behind the nine-hour siege in Bamako which killed 27 persons. Al Mourabitoun has origins similar to that of the nefarious IS. Both originated in western-led interventions in Asia and Africa and were strengthened by the so-called Arab Spring. The Islamic State sprang out of the US-led coalition's destruction of Saddam Hussain's Iraq in 2003 when Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi used disenchanted elements of Saddam's Baathist state-generals, spies and soldiers - and vast weapons caches to create his Sunni Arab "Caliphate" in July 2014.
Al Qaeda in Africa is also rooted in another equally disastrous western intervention - the overthrow of Muammar Gadaffi in 2011. The Libyan civil war was part of a so-called "Arab Spring" which began with civil unrest in Tunisia in 2010 and spread through Arab League countries. It turned into an Islamist Winter post 2012 when civil-war wracked countries like Syria became sanctuaries for terrorist groups like the IS and al Qaeda.
France under President Chirac wisely stayed away from the 2003 US-led intervention in Iraq. Under President Nicolas Sarkozy, France played an active role in the multi-national coalition force that bombed Libya in 2011, albeit under a UN Security Council mandate. I witnessed the consequences of this intervention firsthand over 2000km south of Libya's capital Tripoli in Chad last December. I was part of a small Indian press delegation witnessing France's intervention in Francophone Africa. Amidst the high-pitched roars of Rafale fighter jets, military officials briefed us on their war against a host of islamist groups reinvigorated by the collapse of Gadaffi's Libya.
Jihadist fires have simmered in Africa for decades. In 2005, the Algerian Salafi group for Call and Combat (GSPC) pledged allegiance to Osama bin Laden and renamed itself the al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Al-Mourabitoun, headed by a veteran jihadist fighter Mokhtar Belmokhtar, broke away from AQIM sometime in 2013. Just how these groups had revived to threaten fragile African countries, the UN Security Council committee grimly noted in a 2013 report:
"In the past 12 months, the proliferation of weapons from Libya has continued at a worrying rate and has spread into new territory: West Africa, the Levant and, potentially, even the Horn of Africa," it said. "Illicit flows from the country are fuelling existing conflicts in Africa and the Levant and enriching the arsenals of a range of non-state actors, including terrorist groups."
Flush with arms and ammunition from Libyan arsenals, jihadist groups captured vast swathes of north-eastern Mali in 2012 prompting French military intervention. Last January four Rafale jets flew 9.5 hours nonstop from their base in Saint-Dizier in southern France, topping up their planes five times, to bomb Jihadist forces as they encircled the town of Gao in Mali. This intervention was later succeeded by an ongoing Operation Barkhane (sand dune)- spread across Niger, Mali, Chad, Burkino Faso and Mauritania-the "G5" countries that make up the Sahelian belt, an area 10 times the size of France. More than 3,000 French military personnel backed by Rafale fighter jets, helicopter gunships and drones form the vanguard of a coalition fighting jihadi groups in the Sahel.
Libya, with its multiple armed conflicts, warlords and multiple militias continues to pose a challenge for them. In October 2014, an Islamic State affiliate took control of the eastern Libyan city of Derna, marking Libya's transition to Islamist Winter.
"Southern Libya is a large haven for terrorist armed groups who use it to rest, train, recruit and finance," a French military commander in N'Djamena rued. Intelligence-led military operation have intercepted hundreds of tons of weapon caches, most of it from Libyan arsenals, riding on Africa's old smuggling networks.
In August this year, Mokhtar Belmokhtar was named the head of al Qaeda in Western Africa, indicating why it may be too early to pronounce the demise of al Qaeda.
The core of al Qaeda's leadership headed by Ayman Al Zawahiri since the 2011 killing of Osama bin Laden may have weakened and hiding in the Af-Pak region. But its affiliates like AQIM, al Muhajiroun, the al Nusra front in Syria and al Qaeda in Yemen continue to pose serious security challenges for the world. The Arab Spring was a short-lived phenomenon.
The Islamist Winter is likely to endure.