China tests new waters
Beijing's first-ever deployment of a submarine to Pakistan signals a new cat-and-mouse game in the Indian Ocean
Sandeep Unnithan June 4, 2015 | UPDATED 12:22 IST
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On March 31 this year, China's deadliest conventional submarine set sail from its base on Hainan island in the South China Sea. The Yuan-class submarine '335', equipped with torpedoes, anti-ship missiles and an air-independent pro-pulsion that dramatically enhances its underwater endurance, entered the Gulf of Aden over a fortnight later. But it was 335's first port of call that caught the attention of the security establishment in South Block. On May 22, less than a week after Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrapped up a state visit to Beijing, the steel shark pulled into Karachi port. Government sources confirmed to INDIA TODAY that submarine 335 spent a week on an 'Operational Turn Around' in Karachi, military-speak for refuelling and restocking the submarine and resting its 65-man crew.
On May 28, Navy chief Admiral R.K. Dhowan told reporters in New Delhi that India was "minutely" monitoring Chinese naval activity in the Indian Ocean. He signalled the start of a new great game over the world's most important water body. If the Cold War was about NATO snooping on the Soviet Navy in the Atlantic Ocean, the 21st century is about countries keeping tabs on the Chinese navy's expanding presence through the Asia-Pacific.
It is a surveillance game where India is assisted by the United States, whose 2011 strategic rebalance towards Asia-Pacific was prompted by China's blue water ambitions. Last December, the US passed on intelligence after its drones spotted a Chinese Han-class nuclear-powered attack submarine "running on the surface" in the Gulf of Aden. Submarine 335 was likely a result of this collaboration although Indian officials declined to confirm this.
Naval cooperation is one of the cornerstones of the 10-year defence framework agreement signed between US Defence Secretary Ashton Carter and his counterpart Manohar Parrikar in New Delhi on June 3. Significantly, Carter began his trip with a visit to the Navy's eastern naval command base in Visakhapatnam, key to its "Act East" policy.
THE SINO-PAK EMBRACE
On May 26, China released its defence white paper in Beijing. Only the third such document in the past three decades, the paper signalled the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy's breakout from "offshore waters defence" to "open seas protec-tion". The last time China ventured so far was in the 16th century when Admiral Zheng He sailed the Ming imperial fleets into the Indian Ocean.
On May 26, China released its defence white paper in Beijing. Only the third such document in the past three decades, the paper signalled the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy's breakout from "offshore waters defence" to "open seas protec-tion". The last time China ventured so far was in the 16th century when Admiral Zheng He sailed the Ming imperial fleets into the Indian Ocean.
The veneer of 'anti piracy operations' wears thin as China demonstrates its ability to protect its sea lanes of communication and interdict the enemy.
"China is determined to step up its strategic forays into the Indian Ocean region," says Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at New Delhi's Centre for Policy Research. "When Chinese submarines docked in Colombo last autumn, it became the furthest deployment of the Chinese navy in 600 years. With China now planning to sell submarines to Pakistan and turn Gwadar into a naval outpost, Chinese vessels are likely to call at Pakistani ports."
These developments were long in the making. In May 2001, then Pakistani president General Pervez Musharraf let slip at a press conference in Islamabad that the main objective of letting China develop the Gwadar port in Balochistan province was to counter India's nuclear submarines. "As and when needed, the Chinese navy would be in Gwadar to give a befitting reply to anyone," he warned. Nearly 14 years later, Musharraf's dream is closer to reality. Analysts say a naval base in Gwadar has enormous implications for over 80 per cent of India's energy supplies that flow in from West Asia. China worries about the Malacca dilemma-where 80 per cent of its oil imports flow through the narrow Malacca Strait vulnerable to naval blockades. "China has now signalled the creation of a West Asia dilemma for India," says Major General G.D. Bakshi (retired). "If you try to block the Malacca Strait in war, they will block your energy supply lines by operating from Gwadar."
The choice of the Yuan-class submarine to visit Pakistan was not accidental. On March 31, Pakistan's defence ministry officials told a standing committee of parliament that they had decided to buy eight Yuan-class submarines. The price was not revealed, but analysts estimate it will cost $4-5 billion. It is the largest defence deal between the two countries. The Pakistani navy operates a fleet of five French-built submarines, including three modern Agosta 90Bs, and hopes to field a fleet of 15 such vessels. "China's submarine building technology has been suspect and the Pakistanis would like to take a good look at the boat before buying it," says Vice Admiral Vijay Shankar (retired), former Strategic Forces commander.
This February, the Modi government signalled India's largest naval expansion in over a decade with approvals to build seven frigates and six nuclear powered attack submarines worth over $20 billion. Analysts see the submarine sale as a move by China to checkmate the growing Indian navy. G. Parthasarathy, former Indian high commissioner to Islamabad, says, "China is not only telling the world it has a strong partner in Pakistan but would like to see India's maritime capabilities directed towards countering the Pakistani navy."
Surface warships are easy to track using satellites, spy planes and drones. Monitoring submerged submarines, however, is near impossible. "We can tell where a submarine is only when it is spotted on the surface or pulls into port for an OTR," an official says.
Pakistan's submarines are still several years away from induction, but when they do arrive, it will involve greater Indian investments in anti-submarine warfare (ASW). Indian intelligence officials believe the Yuan-class submarines could become strategic force multipliers and equip Pakistan with a second strike capability or the ability to launch nuclear weapons from under the sea. Pakistan has developed the Babur land attack cruise missile that has a range of 500-700 km and was first test-fired in 2005. It is believed to be fitting a miniature plutonium based warhead on these missiles to allow them to be launched from under the sea. This would allow its fleet of submarines to practically target all of the Indian seaboard.
INDIA'S OPTIONS
New Delhi has watched the growing Sino-Pak embrace with consternation even as it reaches out to foster economic ties with China and put the contentious border issue on the back burner. Fear of upsetting China is the main reason for India resisting US attempts to get it to become more assertive in the South China Sea. "Other countries do not have such a huge disputed land boundary with China," a naval official says. This, even as China under President Xi Jingping has boosted strategic cooperation with Pakistan. "Previous presidents such as Hu Jintao resisted large arms transfers to Pakistan because they did not want to push India into the US orbit," says Major-General Bakshi (retired).
New Delhi has watched the growing Sino-Pak embrace with consternation even as it reaches out to foster economic ties with China and put the contentious border issue on the back burner. Fear of upsetting China is the main reason for India resisting US attempts to get it to become more assertive in the South China Sea. "Other countries do not have such a huge disputed land boundary with China," a naval official says. This, even as China under President Xi Jingping has boosted strategic cooperation with Pakistan. "Previous presidents such as Hu Jintao resisted large arms transfers to Pakistan because they did not want to push India into the US orbit," says Major-General Bakshi (retired).
While India has been silent on the recent arms transfers, it has flagged the $46-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) at the highest levels. The CPEC aims to build a corridor linking China's Xinjiang province with Gwadar. The 3,000-km-long economic corridor with a network of power plants and industrial areas is cause for concern because it passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. In a press conference in New Delhi on May 31, Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj said that Modi had taken up the issue of the CPEC during his recent visit to Beijing. In coming days, New Delhi will have to find more than harsh words to deal with this strategic alliance.
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